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Macro Team of Wencaixin Research Institute

Wu Chaoming and Hu Wenyan　

Core view　

How will the domestic interest rate, especially the yield of ten-year treasury bonds, be interpreted in the future? The market has little disagreement on the medium and long-term trend. Most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, and show an overall downward trend. However, the market has great differences and different judgments on the short-term trend in the next few quarters.

1. China’s interest rate analysis framework: fundamental factors such as economic growth and inflation dominate the direction of interest rate change, while other factors such as financial supervision policies and exchange rates affect the fluctuation range of interest rates.One isIn the medium and long term, the yield trend of domestic ten-year government bonds is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle, indicating that the trend of domestic interest rates is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.The second isAfter the international financial crisis in 2008, the goal of financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates. In the cycle of stable economic growth, especially economic recovery, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead to a significant increase in market interest rates.The third isInterest rates will also be affected by exchange rates, supply and demand of funds and other factors. For example, the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve will restrict the domestic monetary easing space, and the demand for funds exceeding supply will also raise the level of interest rate centers.

Second, the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters: it is expected that the fluctuation will bottom out first, and then the probability of recovery will be too high.

First, from the perspective of interest rate analysis framework, the yield of 10-year government bonds may bottom out first and then rise.First,The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which determines that it is difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term, or to bottom out first, but after the economy is confirmed to stabilize and rise, interest rates will tend to rise;Secondly,Affected by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig grain price, high oil price, recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates;Third,The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on domestic interest rates.

Second, from a quantitative point of view, the current yield of ten-year government bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and it is only a matter of time before it gradually converges upward in the future.

Third, based on the historical experience in 2012 and 2019, the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term. However, if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economic confirmation stabilizes, the interest rate will enter the recovery channel.In July this year, the domestic economy recovered weakly, which led the central bank to cut interest rates unexpectedly in August. If the real estate recovery continues to fall short of expectations, the possibility of cutting interest rates again will not be ruled out. However, with the steady growth policy taking effect, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future is increasing, and the trend of interest rate bottoming out in the next few quarters is more clear.

Risk warning:Real estate recovery continued to fall short of expectations, and the overseas economy went down more than expected.

main body

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic market interest rate has experienced two obvious downturns: First, in April-May, 2022, in the face of the severe impact on the economy brought by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the rebound of the epidemic, the central bank greatly increased the liquidity supply to boost the demand for entity financing and support the economic recovery as soon as possible. The domestic short-term market interest rate DR007 dropped from about 2.1% in the first quarter to around 1.5%, which was about 60BP lower than the policy interest rate in the same period (see Figure 1). Second, from July to August, due to the unexpected economic recovery, especially the overall weakening of financial and economic data in July, and the prominent problem of insufficient effective social demand, the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates in mid-August, pushing the interest rate of DR007 down from about 1.9% at the end of June to the historical low of 1.3% during the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, and the yield of 10-year government bonds also broke through the low point in the same period to further open up the downside (see Figure 1-2).

Looking forward to the future, the market has little difference on the medium and long-term trend, and most people think that the interest rate will follow the shift of GDP, especially the nominal GDP growth rate, showing an overall downward trend, but the market has great differences and different judgments on the trend in the next few quarters. Therefore, based on the interest rate analysis framework and quantitative analysis, this paper studies the trend of domestic interest rates in the next few quarters.

First, China’s interest rate analysis framework

(1) The interest rate level is mainly dominated by fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices.

According to the People’s Bank Law, the ultimate goal of China’s monetary policy is to "maintain the stability of the currency and promote economic growth". As a big country economy, China’s monetary policy is dominated by me. Interest rate is one of the key tools to achieve the goal of monetary policy, so the formulation of domestic interest rate policy and the trend of interest rate level mainly depend on economic fundamental factors such as economic growth and prices in the medium and long term.

First, the trend of domestic interest rate is basically consistent with the growth rate of nominal GDP and the running trend of inventory cycle.Inventory cycle describes the periodic change of enterprise inventory for about 40 months, which can be used to help judge the strength of economic growth because of its strong correlation with nominal economic growth (see Figure 3). Since 2003, China has experienced a total of five complete inventory cycles, and is currently in the sixth cycle of the inventory cycle (see Figure 4). Generally speaking, the upward cycle of inventory often corresponds to the recovery stage of interest rate, that is, the bear market in the bond market, and vice versa. However, it is worth noting that the peak and trough of interest rate and inventory cycle are only similar at the time point, but not completely consistent. In most cases, interest rate is slightly ahead of the latter to peak or bottom. On the one hand, this stems from the fact that the growth rate of inventory lags behind the economic growth slightly (see Figure 3), and on the other hand, it is also related to the interest rate being affected by other factors such as investors’ expectations. In addition, there is no fixed proportional relationship between interest rate fluctuation range and inventory fluctuation range, and they only have the same trend, indicating that economic growth is not the only factor determining interest rate.

Second, there is a strong correlation between interest rate trend and inflation gap in history, but the correlation tends to weaken in recent years.In order to stabilize inflation and its expectation, China will put forward this year’s CPI growth target in the government work report every year. If the price deviates far from the above target value, monetary policy will take effective measures to promote the price to return to the target center. From the practical experience, before 2013, the yield of domestic ten-year government bonds and the inflation gap (CPI growth rate-government target growth rate) basically changed synchronously, and the correlation between them was very strong (see Figure 5). However, after 2013, due to the obvious reduction of domestic CPI fluctuation, the inflation gap basically fluctuated around 0, the monetary policy was weakened by price constraints, and the correlation between the inflation gap and the yield of 10-year government bonds was also obviously weakened. If we consider the relationship between the comprehensive inflation index weighted by CPI and PPI and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds, the correlation between the two has also weakened after 2013, and the peaks and valleys of the two are close at the time point but no longer completely consistent (see Figure 6). On the whole, when the inflationary pressure is high, the interest rate is more constrained by the price, which is more consistent with the price trend, and vice versa, which shows that inflation is one of the important factors in determining the interest rate.

(B) After the international financial crisis in 2008, financial stability has also become an important factor affecting interest rates.

After the financial crisis in 2008, the major central banks in the world learned the lesson that monetary policy only focused on inflation targets and paid insufficient attention to financial stability, and began to focus on improving the financial regulatory framework and strengthening macro-prudential management, and their attention to financial stability targets increased significantly. In terms of macro-prudential management framework construction, the Bank of China is at the forefront of global central banks, and further accelerates the improvement of the dual-pillar regulatory framework of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy after the crisis. Among them, the former focuses on maintaining economic and price stability, while the latter focuses on maintaining financial stability. Under the background of resolving financial risks and maintaining the stability of macro leverage ratio, financial regulatory policies have also become an important factor affecting the level of domestic interest rates. During the period of steady economic growth, especially during the economic recovery cycle, strict supervision and the policy tendency of reducing leverage will lead the market interest rate to rise. For example, in 2013-2014 and 2016-2018, two rounds of domestic interest rates went up, and the tightening of financial supervision was one of the main reasons.

First, the above two rounds of interest rate hikes are in the rising stage of inventory cycle and nominal GDP growth rate (see Figure 4), indicating that economic stabilization and recovery is an important prerequisite for interest rate hikes.However, if we look at the constant price GDP growth rate and CPI growth rate indicators, they have basically changed little during the period (see Figure 7), reflecting that there is no overheating risk in the economy, and fundamental factors are not enough to support a sharp rise in interest rates. The central bank’s working paper "Natural Interest Rate in China" has also reached a similar conclusion, that is, except for a slight decline around 2015, the domestic output gap in 2012-2019 is close to zero (see Figure 8), indicating that the economic operation is generally stable.

Second, the rapid rise of interest rates in mid-2013 and the end of 2016 is closely related to the shift of monetary policy to deleveraging to prevent risks and the tightening of regulatory policies.During the above two rounds of interest rate hikes, the growth rate of leverage ratio in the financial sector declined (see Figure 9). Among them, in 2013, in order to strictly control banks’ off-balance-sheet loans (such as trust loans) to promote the disorderly expansion of non-standard assets (see Figure 10), and to prevent the rapid growth of interbank business from idling funds within the financial system and increasing the risk of maturity mismatch, the regulatory authorities issued a series of regulatory measures, such as the Notice on Regulating the Investment Operation of Commercial Banks’ wealth management business (referred to as Circular No.8), which forced financial institutions to strengthen liquidity management and added a "default door" for a bank. In 2016, as the economy entered a new round of upward channel, and there were many problems of leverage and capital idling in the financial market, the primary goal of domestic monetary policy gradually shifted from steady growth to risk prevention. At the same time, the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China took preventing and resolving major risks as the first of the three tough battles. In October 2016, the Politburo meeting clearly put forward "focusing on curbing asset bubbles and preventing economic and financial risks". In November 2017, new regulations on asset management were introduced, which started the domestic financial deleveraging campaign, and the leverage ratio growth rate of financial institutions increased from 20 in early 2016.

Looking back at the above two rounds of interest rate upward cycles, it is inseparable from the tightening of financial supervision policies. The deep-seated reason behind it is that when the economy is under great downward pressure, the central bank will often implement a loose policy of "releasing water to raise fish" to stimulate the economic recovery. At that time, the market liquidity is abundant but the return of the real economy is low, and the phenomenon of "asset shortage" is prominent, resulting in excess funds speculating on various virtual assets, chasing high-term spread assets, amplifying financial leverage and pushing up financial risks. However, when the economy starts to stabilize and rebound, the regulatory authorities will take the initiative to tighten monetary policy, resolve the risks bred in the early stage and reduce the policy sequelae, thus pushing interest rates upward. Therefore, the interest rate recovery is often in the period after the growth rate of social financing has recovered for a period of time or at the stage of bottoming out, that is, after the economy has stabilized and recovered, the convergence of liquidity at this time will also lead to the bottoming out of credit spreads (see Figure 11).

(3) The interest rate level will also be affected by other factors such as exchange rate, capital supply and demand.

First, monetary policy should not only achieve internal balance, but also take into account external balance, especially with the continuous improvement of China’s capital market opening level, it is necessary to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, so exchange rate factors have certain constraints on the central bank’s interest rate policy, although this constraint tends to weaken with the increase of exchange rate flexibility.According to "impossible trinity" theory, monetary policy must give up some independence when allowing capital to flow freely and keeping the exchange rate relatively stable. For example, when the Fed enters the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar index strengthens, attracting international capital to return; If other economies do not follow the tightening of monetary policy, they will often face greater capital outflow and exchange rate depreciation pressure, thus aggravating the domestic capital market turmoil.

From the domestic practical experience, from 1989 to 2019, the Federal Reserve started four interest rate hike cycles, in which the domestic interest rate increased in different degrees three times, and only in 1999-2000 did China keep the interest rate unchanged (see Figure 12).The main reason why the interest rate did not move was that the GDP growth rate dropped from 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 1989 to 6.7% in the fourth quarter of 1999, and the sharp economic downturn did not support monetary tightening. In 2022, the Federal Reserve started the interest rate hike cycle again, and the domestic monetary policy was "I-oriented", which lowered interest rates, partly due to the increase in exchange rate flexibility, which improved the flexibility and operational space of monetary policy, but this did not mean that domestic monetary policy was not affected and constrained by the Fed’s interest rate hike.

Second, the supply and demand of funds will have an impact on the short-term fluctuation of interest rates.If the money supply and social financing scale represent the macro-level social capital supply and demand respectively, then the difference between the growth rate of social financing and money supply indicates the relative change of capital demand and supply. The bigger the difference, the more the demand for funds exceeds the supply, the more obvious the tension of funds in the market, and the more the interest rate of funds will rise, and vice versa. Empirical data does confirm this point. Since 2015, the difference (social financing growth rate -M2 growth rate) and the yield of 10-year government bonds have fluctuated obviously and have a high correlation (see Figure 13).

An interesting phenomenon is that since 2011, the 10-year bond yield has a high linkage with social financing, but the correlation with the change of money supply has obviously decreased (see Figure 14).Theoretically speaking, the growth rate of M2 should be inversely related to the interest rate, but this relationship is obviously weakened after 2011. The main reasons behind this are as follows: On the one hand, with the acceleration of domestic interest rate marketization, coupled with the rapid development of financial innovation and disintermediation, China’s monetary control mode is gradually shifting from monetary quantity control to price control, which leads to the weakening of the correlation between money supply and economic growth and interest rate level; On the other hand, the money supply M2 reflects more how strong the countercyclical policy is than the growth of the real economy. Different from M2, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds is consistent with the growth rate of social financing, which reflects that the domestic interest rate depends more on the financing demand of the real economy, and the financing demand is behind the growth of the real economy, especially the strong and weak changes of domestic demand. In the final analysis, economic growth is still the decisive force leading the trend of medium and long-term interest rates.

(4) Summary

To sum up, the domestic interest rate level is determined by the multiple objectives of monetary policy, but the core factors that affect our interest rate level at present are still economic growth and inflation, and with the obvious slowdown of domestic price fluctuations in recent years, the former plays a leading role in determining the direction of interest rate changes. In addition, factors such as financial stability and exchange rate can not dominate the direction of interest rate changes, but will strengthen the trend of interest rate changes and increase its fluctuation range. When the economy is in the recovery channel, financial risk prevention and other goals will push interest rates up; When the economy is in a downward cycle, financial risk prevention, exchange rate stability and other goals need to make way for economic growth, and interest rates generally fluctuate and fall.

Second, the short-term trend of domestic interest rates: first, the fluctuation bottomed out, and then the probability of recovery was too high.

(A) Based on the interest rate analysis framework: the yield of 10-year treasury bonds may bottom out first and then rise.

1. The probability of weak economic recovery in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply in the short term.

Whether the PPI price index has dropped first or the current replenishment time has reached the highest level in history, it is a high probability event for China to enter a new round of destocking cycle in the future (see Figure 15). What needs to be pointed out here is that since 2021, the growth rate of domestic inventory has been greatly deviated from the growth rate of GDP and the trend of interest rate level, that is, while enterprises replenish inventory, the economic growth rate has dropped rapidly and sharply, and the interest rate has also dropped (see Figure 16). The reason is that the macro-and micro-policies have been tightened simultaneously in 2021, which has led to the rapid and substantial reduction of the leverage ratio of entities (see Figure 17). Coupled with the epidemic disturbance this year, demand has shrunk rapidly and inventory has been passively improved. Therefore, to judge the future trend of economy and interest rate, we need to comprehensively consider many factors such as inventory cycle, epidemic situation and counter-cyclical policy, and we can’t just observe one indicator of inventory cycle.

It is expected that the probability of weak economic fundamentals in the second half of the year is too high, which makes it difficult for interest rates to rise sharply.First, with the marginal alleviation of the short-term impact of the epidemic, the recovery of people flow and logistics, and the slight stabilization and recovery of the growth rate of social integration, the leading indicator of the economy (see Figure 18-19), the marginal recovery of the domestic economic growth rate in the second half of the year can be expected from the "deep pit" of 0.4% (constant price) in the second quarter. Second, the inventory cycle has entered a new round of decline channel, which will inevitably restrict the economic recovery. Third, although the growth rate of domestic social integration has stabilized and rebounded, the structure mainly relies on the financial front, and the credit growth rate is still falling, reflecting that the problem of insufficient effective social demand is severe and the economic recovery should not be overestimated. Looking at the extended cycle, China’s credit growth has been difficult in recent years, mainly due to the weakening trend of infrastructure and real estate, which used to have a large credit demand (see Figure 20), while the demand for other loans with relatively small volume is difficult to make up for the credit demand gap, which leads to the decline or normalization of China’s credit growth rate during the shift of new and old kinetic energy, which also means that the mode of stimulating economic growth by financial expansion is unsustainable, and it is necessary to cultivate new kinetic energy and new social purchasing power, create new credit demand, and smoothly spend the shift of growth rate.

2. Short-term inflationary pressure rises, which supports the upward trend of interest rates.

According to historical experience, when the domestic prices of pigs, oil and grain rise in resonance, the inflationary pressure tends to be greater (continuously exceeding the inflation target of 3%). On the contrary, if the prices of pigs and oil hedge each other and the food price is moderate, the inflation risk is relatively small and the time for the price to continue to rise is relatively short (see Figure 21).

Looking into the future, influenced by factors such as the resonant upward trend of pig food prices, the high oil prices, the recovery of consumer demand and abundant liquidity, it is expected that CPI will continue to fluctuate around 3% or even above 3% from the second half of this year to the first half of next year, which will support the upward trend of interest rates.

First, a new round of "pig cycle" has been launched, and this round of pig price increase is second only to the African swine fever period in 2019.Historical experience shows that each round of "pig cycle" in China lasts about four years, and the first 1.5-2 years are the upward period of prices. In April this year, the domestic pork price went down to the stage low point, which is about four years from the starting point of the last cycle. Since May, the pig price has continued to rise, indicating that a new round of "pig cycle" has started, and it may usher in an upward period of more than one year in the future. Judging from the increase of this round of pig cycle, due to the weak demand recovery and the slow speed of supply, it is expected that the increase of pig price in this round will hardly exceed that of African swine fever in 2019. However, at the end of July, the average price of pork in 22 provinces and cities has risen to 29 yuan/kg, and extreme weather may have a certain negative impact on the supply of pigs. In the future, the pig price will probably continue to rise moderately (see Figure 22), and the increase is expected to exceed several rounds of pig cycles that began in 2006, 2010 and 2014.

Second, the rise of international food prices is superimposed on extreme weather, and the risk of food price fluctuation in China may increase in the future.Benefiting from the low dependence of China’s three staple foods on foreign countries and sufficient domestic stocks, the increase in international food prices in the first half of the year has relatively little impact on China, which mainly drives domestic CPI through cost channels. However, two factors may increase the risk of food price fluctuation in China in the future. First, the negative impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on global food prices, such as reduced grain production, rising grain production costs and slowing food trade, has yet to be revealed. In addition, the rise of food protectionism (the number of countries that issued food export bans in 2022 was as high as 24, second only to the 28 in 2008 food crisis), it is hard to say that the warning of future global food crisis has been lifted. Second, the impact of extreme weather on the global and China’s food prices may have increased: on the one hand, according to the statistics of the United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July this year was the second hottest July in the world since statistics were available in 1880, and China also ushered in the hottest summer since statistics were available in 1961. It is expected that the negative impact of high temperature and dry weather on food production will gradually emerge; On the other hand, the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that there is a 60% probability that La Nina will continue from December 2022 to February 2023, which means that a rare "triple" La Nina climate event may occur this year, and the world will face the test of cold winter, or further push up the global and Chinese food prices (see Figure 23-24).

Third, international oil prices may continue to fluctuate at a high position, and China’s imported inflationary pressure still exists.For example, geopolitical conflicts and global energy transformation will restrict the improvement of this round of crude oil supply, and the cold winter weather is expected to partially hedge the impact of the decline in crude oil demand brought about by the global economic downturn. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate at a high position in a high probability during the year.

Fourth, abundant domestic liquidity and improved consumer demand will also support the rise of CPI center. On the one hand,Economic recovery after the epidemic is conducive to reducing the unemployment rate and increasing residents’ income, thus boosting residents’ consumption ability and willingness. In addition, after the epidemic is controlled, the consumption scene has improved, and residents have accumulated rich savings in the early stage (see Figure 25), which has accumulated energy for future consumption demand recovery.On the other hand,Since the second half of last year, the domestic money supply has been loose, and the growth rate of M2 has increased from a low of 8.2% in August last year to 12% in July this year, which is much higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, setting a new high since the outbreak, and will also support the rise of CPI center.

3. The continuous upside-down spread between China and the United States and the transformation of wide currency into wide credit will also increase the upward pressure on interest rates.

First, the spread between China and the United States may remain upside down for a long time, which will increase the upward pressure on interest rates through exchange rate channels.Affected by high inflation, the Fed has raised interest rates four times during the year, raising the target interest rate of the federal funds from 0-0.25% to 2.25-2.5% (see Figure 26), and the Fed is still on the way to continue raising interest rates during the year. During the same period, the pressure of steady growth of domestic economy was great, and interest rates were cut twice during the year. The dislocation of financial cycles between China and the United States deepened, and the yields of 10-year government bonds of the two countries continued to be upside down. This trend will continue in the short term. According to historical experience, the falling or even upside-down spread between China and the United States will increase the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the pressure of capital outflow (see Figure 27). In order to take into account the external balance, domestic monetary policy easing will be restrained to some extent.

Second, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, it will also restrict the downside of interest rates.Since the beginning of this year, domestic real estate-related credit has shrunk sharply, and the proportion of new real estate loans to all new credit has turned negative in the second quarter (see Figure 28), indicating that the repayment scale of residents and housing enterprises has exceeded the amount of real estate loans lent by banks. Affected by this, the transmission of domestic wide money to wide credit has been impeded. In July, the difference between the growth rate of social financing and the growth rate of M2 hit a new low since statistics were available (see Figure 14). However, in the future, the positive factors have increased significantly. For example, after the 5-year LPR interest rate was lowered by 15BP again on August 22, the domestic personal housing loan interest rate may have been lower than the 2016 low, only slightly higher than that after the 2008 financial crisis. Generally speaking, the mortgage interest rate is about 6 months ahead of the growth rate of real estate loans. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic mortgage interest rate has continued to fall rapidly, which indicates that the growth rate of real estate loans is expected to gradually stabilize and pick up in the future (see Figure 29). With the gradual recovery of real estate credit from a very low position and the continuous efforts of "one city, one policy", the transformation from wide currency to wide credit is expected to accelerate, which will restrict the downward space of interest rates in the future.

To sum up, the economic recovery is weak and the regulatory policies are difficult to tighten, but the inflationary pressure is increasing, the spread between China and the United States continues to be upside down, and the wide currency is transformed into wide credit. It is expected that the interest rate will have limited room for further decline in the current position. In the next few quarters, the domestic 10-year national debt income will be the first to oscillate and bottom out, and the probability of rising later is too high.

(B) Based on quantitative analysis: the current yield of 10-year treasury bonds is lower than the desired interest rate, and the high probability gradually converges upward.

In the medium and long term, the market interest rate should be equivalent to the desirable interest rate level that can not only ensure the economic operation at the potential output level, but also achieve the goals of price stability, full employment and financial stability. In this paper, the general Taylor rule method is used to measure the desirable interest rate level in China, and it is compared with the market interest rate to see whether there is overshoot at present, and thus to judge the future market interest rate trend.

According to Taylor rule, the interest rate level is mainly determined by inflation gap and output gap. With the diversification of the central bank’s monetary policy objectives and the development of financial markets, we add exchange rate and social financing scale factors to the basic Taylor rule to fit and measure the current acceptable level of China’s 10-year national debt yield. Taylor’s rule regression equation shows that the current yield level of ten-year treasury bonds is obviously lower than the desired interest rate level (see Figure 30), which means that the interest rate level is lower than the desired interest rate level that matches the current economic growth, prices, exchange rate and liquidity. According to past experience, when the interest rate gap (market interest rate-desirable interest rate) falls below -0.4%, the probability of market interest rate converging upward to desirable interest rate is greater, and it is only a matter of time before the market interest rate rises in the future.

(3) Based on historical experience: If there is no unexpected impact, the interest rate will fall first and then rise after the interest rate cut boots land.

No matter from the economic fundamentals or quantitative point of view, we all think that the interest rate will converge marginally in the future with a high probability, but the market is still skeptical about whether the interest rate will really go up. There is an important reason behind it, that is, the economic data in July was significantly less than expected, and after the loan suspension risk incident, the central bank unexpectedly lowered the policy interest rates of MLF and OMO on August 15, which rekindled the market’s expectation of starting a new round of interest rate reduction cycle in China.

Historical experience does show that after the central bank cuts interest rates continuously, the market interest rate will tend to decline in the short term, but it also shows that as long as the credit data improves and the economy gradually stabilizes after the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year government bonds will open the recovery channel after the interest rate cut boots land. For example, in 2012 and 2019, there were unexpected interest rate cuts, but after that, interest rates rebounded with the improvement of the economy, rather than falling. Therefore, there is great uncertainty about whether to continue to cut interest rates after cutting interest rates, depending on the marginal changes in economic fundamentals.

1. In 2012, interest rates were cut twice in a row: the yield of ten-year government bonds only dropped by 14BP, and then the journey of recovery began.

After the second quarter of 2011, the domestic economy continued to slow down. However, because the CPI has been above 3%, the central bank is cautious in cutting interest rates, mainly by lowering the RRR to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (see Figure 31-32). Until mid-2012, with the CPI growth rate falling below 3%, coupled with the superimposed influence of the economic downturn, repeated wide credit (see Figure 33) and the further intensification of the European debt crisis caused by bank runs in overseas Greece, the central bank cut interest rates twice in June and July respectively (see Figure 32). After two interest rate cuts, the cumulative maximum downward rate of 10-year treasury bond yield is about 14BP. However, as the credit growth rate announced after the interest rate cut returned to the upward trend, the economy gradually confirmed its stabilization, and the yield of 10-year government bonds began to turn upside down, starting an upward cycle (see Figure 32-33).

2. Unexpected interest rate cut in 2019: The yield of ten-year government bonds fell by about 9BP, and the downside was reopened after the outbreak of the epidemic.

After the second half of 2018, the domestic economy continued to slow down, and the CPI growth rate was less than 3% in the same period (see Figure 34). In order to prevent financial risks, the central bank was more cautious about interest rate cuts, and also chose to lower the RRR first to hedge the downward pressure on the economy (4 RRR cuts in 2018 and 5 RRR cuts in 2019), which promoted the growth rate of domestic social integration and credit to continue to rise to March 2019. However, due to the escalation of trade friction and the occurrence of risk events such as Baoshang Bank, the domestic credit contraction pressure increased significantly in 2019, and the credit growth rate dropped again after the first quarter of the same year. At the same time, the PMI index was below 50% of threshold for six consecutive months, and the downward pressure on the economy increased (see Figure 35-36). Therefore, although the CPI growth rate broke through 3% from September to October in 2019 (the soaring pork price increased the structural inflationary pressure), after the PMI fell to 49.3% in October, hitting an eight-month low, the central bank cut the MLF interest rate by 5BP in early November (see Figure 35). After the interest rate cut, the yield of 10-year treasury bonds dropped by about 9BP, and then gradually stabilized. At the end of December, the COVID-19 outbreak broke out in China, which further reopened the downward space of interest rates (see Figure 35).

To sum up, during the economic downturn in 2012 and 2019, the central bank was cautious about cutting interest rates at first. However, due to some unexpected risk events, continuous credit contraction and sustained downward pressure on the economy, the central bank still took interest rate cuts at the end of the economic downturn, and the timing of interest rate cuts exceeded market expectations. Both rounds of interest rate cuts pushed interest rates down slightly in the short term, but in 2012, as the economy stabilized, interest rates quickly turned upward, and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2019 further opened up the downside of interest rates.

Similar to 2012 and 2019, in 2022, the central bank was also cautious about comprehensively lowering the policy interest rate. For example, after the interest rate was cut by 10BP in January 2022, despite the unexpected rebound of domestic epidemic in the second quarter, the central bank did not immediately reduce the policy interest rate. It was not until July that the economy turned downward again on the way to recovery and there were twists and turns in credit easing that the central bank cut interest rates again beyond expectations (see Figure 37-38). According to the experience of two rounds of interest rate cuts that exceeded expectations in 2012 and 2019, if the domestic economy gradually stabilizes in the short term, the transformation from wide currency to wide credit accelerates, and the yield of 10-year government bonds drops slightly, the recovery channel will be gradually started; If there is an unexpected risk event, such as the real estate recovery continues to be less than expected, the risk spreads to other fields or even systemic risks, it is also expected that the central bank will cut interest rates quickly, continuously and substantially, and the interest rate center is expected to drop significantly again until the economy stabilizes, but at present, this probability is too small.

(4) Summary

Based on the analysis of the above three perspectives, it is estimated that the yield of domestic 10-year government bonds will probably bottom out first and then rise in the next few quarters:1）The weak recovery of domestic economy does not support a sharp rise in interest rates in the short term, and even does not rule out the possibility of cutting interest rates again. However, with the increasing pressure to stabilize prices and exchange rates, the constraints on monetary easing are also obvious. In addition, with the transformation from a wide currency to a wide credit, the probability of China’s credit demand bottoming out and economic recovery improving in the future will increase. It is only a question of whether the recovery speed or slope can be as expected, and the trend of interest rate recovery is relatively clear.2）At present, the domestic market interest rate has been much lower than the desired interest rate level, and it is only a matter of time before it converges upward;3）Historical experience shows that the interest rate cut on the eve of economic recovery will help the interest rate to decline slightly in the short term, but if there is no unexpected impact, after the interest rate cut boots land and the economy is confirmed to stabilize, the interest rate will open a recovery channel.

In addition, the current real interest rate level in China is not high, and monetary policy is constrained by insufficient demand. The effect of monetary easing on stimulating economic growth is limited, but it may bring more sequelae. Unless it encounters extreme unexpected shocks, it is not necessary to continue to loosen the currency substantially. First, China’s real interest rate (nominal interest rate minus inflation rate) has been continuously lower than the actual economic growth rate. Governor Yi Gang of the Central Bank pointed out in the article "Interest Rate System and Interest Rate Marketization Reform in China" that the real interest rate R after inflation adjustment should be equal to the real economic growth rate G. However, most of the time, the real interest rate in China is lower than the actual economic growth rate, which tends to distort the allocation of financial resources and bring about inflation, asset price bubbles, idle funds and other problems. At present, the real interest rate of RMB loans in China has been at a low level below 1.5% for five consecutive quarters (see Figure 39), and the growth rate has been lower than the real GDP except for the second quarter of this year. Second, the core contradiction facing China’s economy at present is insufficient effective demand. Monetary easing is constrained by banks’ reluctance to borrow and enterprises’ reluctance to borrow, and it is difficult for monetary policy to promote the "soft rope". Therefore, fiscal policy needs more efforts. Monetary policy should cooperate with fiscal policy to provide suitable liquidity and financing environment, and blindly easing will not help accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the current economic structure.

　 　This article was first published on WeChat WeChat official account: Seeing the Macro. The content of the article belongs to the author’s personal opinion and does not represent Hexun.com’s position. Investors should operate accordingly, at their own risk.

　　People’s Daily Online, Beijing, December 13 (Reporter Sun Hongli) Today, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference on health management of key populations and answered questions from reporters.

　　At the meeting, a reporter asked, some elderly people think that it is a little late to vaccinate COVID-19 vaccine. How long can I produce antibodies after vaccination?

　　In this regard, Wang Huaqing, chief expert of immunization program of China CDC, said that the elderly who have not completed vaccination should be vaccinated as soon as possible. It does take some time to have a protective effect after vaccination. Generally, it takes one to two weeks to produce antibodies after vaccination, but if a relatively high level of antibodies is to be produced, it will take about four weeks after full immunization. However, sometimes it is necessary to carry out intensive immunization. After intensive immunization, the time to produce antibodies is faster and shorter, and the level of antibodies produced is higher.

　　"Therefore, those who have not completed vaccination should be vaccinated as soon as possible, and those who have not completed strengthening should be strengthened as soon as possible, so as to play a better protective role." Wang Huaqing said.

Starting from 2023, after the New Year, BYD will usher in a wave of collective new product release, and the price will be reduced. The former champion version and glory version have led the trend of the automobile industry throughout the year. This feeling of rushing away from friends is really tense, but we can also see BYD’s attitude as a new energy guide in China.

Recently, BYD launched a new car named e7, with an official guide price of 103,800-115,800 yuan and a limited time price of 98,800-110,800 yuan. BYD has Dynasty series models and ocean series models, but in fact, E series models are rarely concerned, because most of these cars are oriented to the field of online car rental, but it is these cars that are more outstanding in many aspects, and even can be called the king of cost performance.

The first is the space performance. The starting price is less than 100,000 yuan, but the length, width and height are 4,780/1,900/1,515 mm, and the wheelbase is 2820mm, so it is positioned as a medium-sized car. Compared with BYD and New Energy, it has more space, and it makes up for the product gap between Hehan series models. In addition, the endurance performance must be solid and reliable, and its CLTC pure electric cruising range is 450 km and 520 km, and the whole system comes standard with heat pump air conditioning. The top model also has driver’s seat heating and ventilation, and the central control adopts a 15.6-inch display to support OTA upgrade, navigation and voice control.

BYD e7 is not specially designed for the network car market, but this kind of cost-effective model is more suitable as a network car, and it is also more suitable for ordinary family users to choose. After all, it can bring more comfort to family members in terms of space performance. Even the online car rental market is actually a huge potential market. There are countless models competing in this market, but at the practical level, facing the mileage of hundreds of kilometers every day, everything about the products will be exposed, so the products in this market are more competitive, while BYD has been rushing to friends in various fields.

Accurate market positioning and rich product lines are also the key to BYD’s success. BYD has launched a variety of models for different market segments, from high-end luxury brand-looking, to cost-effective E-series, to mainstream dynasty and ocean series, covering all price ranges and consumer groups. Take e7 as an example, it is precisely positioned in the online car and sinking home market. By providing products that meet the needs of these two markets, it quickly opened up the market situation. In other market segments, BYD also launched models that meet the needs of consumers through in-depth market research and analysis, thus occupying a large share in the overall market.

AM mirror summary:

The listing of BYD e7 once again shows BYD’s strong market competitiveness and innovative ability. With its cost-effective product advantages, it is expected to achieve excellent results in these two market segments by accurately cutting into the network car and sinking the home market. BYD can continue to lead the development of the industry, thanks to its strong technology research and development strength, perfect industrial chain layout, accurate market positioning and good brand reputation. In China’s new energy industry, BYD has brought profound changes from market structure, technological innovation to industrial chain construction, and has become an important force to promote the development of China’s new energy automobile industry. It is believed that in the future, BYD will continue to maintain the spirit of innovation and enterprising, bring more high-quality new energy automobile products to consumers, and make greater contributions to the development of China’s new energy automobile industry.

　　On March 26,

　　The top ten scientific rumors list in 2022 was released.

　　Among them, vegetarians will not get fatty liver,

　　Ten widely circulated rumors, such as O-type blood attracts mosquitoes,

　　Selected as one of the top ten scientific rumors of the year.

　　In the newly released top ten scientific rumors list in 2022,

　　Are there any rumors that you have been "cheated"?

　　Let’s take a look

　　Myth 1-Vegetarian won’t get fatty liver.

　　People who are vegetarian for a long time, malnourished and excessively lose weight may also get fatty liver. The metabolism of fat needs apolipoprotein as a "vehicle". When protein’s intake is insufficient, there is not enough apolipoprotein in the body, and the liver cannot transport excess fat, which accumulates in the liver and leads to fatty liver.

　　Proverbs 2-It’s "faster" to get an injection after a child gets sick than to take medicine.

　　Most oral drugs will be eliminated by the first pass of the liver, and the effect will be relatively gentle, and the risk of drug resistance and adverse reactions will be reduced. However, injected drugs directly enter the human body, and the risk of adverse reactions increases. Usually, when it is not suitable for oral administration, injection will be chosen for administration.

　　Myth 3-After eating oranges, you will be positive for antigen or nucleic acid test.

　　Eating oranges is difficult to affect the test results. If the antigen is detected correctly, the sampling site is the nasal mucosa, and there will be no contact with food. Covid-19’s nucleic acid detection determines the result by amplifying Covid-19’s nucleic acid, which needs to be eluted and purified, and impurities have little influence on the detection result.

　　Proverbs 4-Potatoes germinate, and you can eat them by cutting them off.

　　Solanum nigrum is toxic. After potatoes germinate, its solanum nigrum content will be greatly increased. Ingesting 200mg solanum nigrum at a time, which is equivalent to about 30g of potatoes that have turned green or germinated, can make people toxic and even fatal. Potatoes with severe germination or unable to judge the degree of germination should never be eaten.

　　Myth 5 ——O-type blood attracts mosquitoes more

　　Mosquitoes identify the odor emitted by human body through tentacles, and choose the biting object through odor. The smell of people is mainly determined by genes, and this difference has nothing to do with blood type. People who recruit mosquitoes can generally adopt physical protection and chemical mosquito repellent methods.

　　Myth 6-Honey and garlic can treat Helicobacter pylori infection.

　　Internet-transmitted "sterilization artifacts" such as honey and garlic cannot treat Helicobacter pylori infection. Although bacteria will die because of water loss in honey, honey will be diluted when it enters the stomach, which can not achieve sterilization effect. Although allicin contained in garlic can inhibit the growth of bacteria, it will decompose after entering the human body, and it is difficult to play a bactericidal and bacteriostatic role.

　　Proverbs 7-After COVID-19 is infected, it is better to use drugs comprehensively.

　　This practice may be life-threatening. Each drug has strict usage and dosage, and taking multiple drugs without authorization can easily lead to repeated medication and overdose, which is harmful to human health. Patients who are treated at home are advised to use drugs according to the guidelines of the Health and Health Commission for home treatment, and do not use drugs in combination.

　　Myth 8-Myopia can be cured by surgery.

　　Myopia is irreversible. The cause of myopia is that the axial length of the eye becomes longer. At present, any means, including surgery and wearing glasses, can only correct vision, but can’t shorten the axial length and restore it to its original state, and can’t prevent complications caused by high myopia. Therefore, myopia prevention is more important.

　　Proverb 9-You can lose weight by eating only fruit.

　　Eating only fruit is difficult to lose weight and unhealthy. Protein, fat, carbohydrates, vitamins, minerals and other nutrients are needed to maintain health. Eating only fruit for a long time will lead to malnutrition, and some fruits have high sugar content, and excessive consumption will even increase weight.

　　Rumor 10-It is dangerous to have a substation near your home, so you need to move.

　　The AC frequency of China Substation is 50Hz, which is extremely low in the field of electromagnetic radiation, and the radiation range is very small, so residents need not worry. At the same time, the substation has a certain coverage area, that is, the power supply radius. If it exceeds the power supply radius, it can’t guarantee effective power supply, so the urban substation can’t stay away from residential areas at will.

　 　 　 　On November 28th, the public welfare film "Little Boy with Reunion Dinner" produced by Ningxia Zhongshi Film Co., Ltd., Tianjin Xinyue Culture Media Co., Ltd., Fujian Zhongwei Media Co., Ltd. and Henan Jintongxiang Culture Communication Co., Ltd., jointly produced by Shaanxi Yuchun Film Culture Media Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Yichen Film Technology Co., Ltd. and publicized by Shenzhen Yichen Film Technology Co., Ltd. was released nationwide a few days ago.

　 　 　 　It is reported that the creative team of the film "Little Boy with a Reunion Dinner" visited many families in the early stage of creation, and found that parents had different degrees of "lack of companionship" in the process of children’s growth. They chose the most representative family and the most grounded and touching details to create, which finally touched many people, and almost everyone who watched the film was deeply touched and moved to tears.

　 　 　 　The film tells the story of four children from three families who, in order to have a reunion dinner with their parents, traveled for 500 kilometers after two days of ice and fire, and finally reunited with their parents. At the script seminar, the propaganda minister of Hebi Municipal Committee and a member of the Henan Provincial Inspection Team of the Communist Party of China said: "China’s rapid development is due to Chinese’s diligence. In order to develop, parents have reduced their time with their children, and both parents and children have patience and dedication. It is well known that China has made great contributions to the development of the world, so the world should thank China and China’s parents and children."

　 　 　 　After attending the international film festival, the film "Little Boy with a Reunion Dinner" aroused widespread resonance and response. Up to now, it has been nominated for the best costume design, the most talented new director, the jury award, the best foreign language film actor and the best foreign language film at the 17th London World Film Festival. Won the best children’s film at Tagore International Film Festival; Best film at Drucker International Film Festival; Best Photography Award, Best Supporting Actress Award and Most Potential Actor Award in the 5th Golden Elephant Children’s Film Week. 　 　

　 　 　 　In addition, the film has been shortlisted for 12 international film festivals, including South Africa International Film Festival and Bristol International Film Festival, and has been shown and exchanged in London, Johannesburg, South Africa, Delhi, Sweden, Moscow, Russia, Bristol, Turkey, Istanbul, Bhutan and Ukraine, making it an excellent children’s film undertaking international cultural exchanges.

　 　 　 　After the filming was completed, Golden Boy Elephant Children’s Film Week proposed to set November 20th as "International Companionship Day" every year, so as to let the heart return and love go home.　

On March 7 th, the progress of Tesla FSD (fully autonomous driving) has always been a point of great concern to the outside world. Now, more news about the landing of FSD Beta has been revealed. According to related news, Tesla FSD will land in the European market in 2025, and it is also advancing rapidly in China, and it is expected to be released this summer.

It is pointed out that the European Union adopted relevant new regulations at the just-held World Vehicle Regulations Coordination Forum, and according to this new regulation, it is confirmed that Tesla FSD European version will land in the European market in 2025, and in October this year, Tesla FSD Beta test will start testing in the European Union.

In China, the China version of Tesla FSD Beta is also advancing rapidly. It is reported that the goal is to be officially released this summer. In November last year, four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to deploy and carry out the pilot work of intelligent networked vehicle access and road traffic. At that time, Tesla FSD was considered to have entered the countdown stage.

Earlier, in May last year, Chen Kele, deputy director of the Intelligent Manufacturing Promotion Department of Shanghai Economic and Information Committee, said: In the next stage, Shanghai will further deepen its cooperation with Tesla, promote the layout of functional sectors such as autonomous driving and robots in Shanghai, and jointly build a technology industry cluster with core technological advantages and facing the global market. This also makes us believe that the landing of Tesla FSD in China is indeed just around the corner.

Tesla FSD, the full name of which is Full Self-Drive, means fully automatic driving. At present, Tesla has launched three assisted driving products, namely AP, EAP, and FSD, among which AP is the most basic and EAP is to enhance assisted driving, which can provide intelligent calling, automatic parking, NOA and other functions. These two functions can be used in China at present.

As Tesla’s highest-level assisted driving ability, FSD can provide navigation-assisted driving, automatic lane change, automatic parking, intelligent calling, traffic signal recognition and other functions. Up to now, only the Beta version has been provided in North America. But in fact, these capabilities are already possessed by major domestic new energy brands and have been used on the road. In this respect, Tesla is indeed a little behind. I believe that Tesla is also actively responding to ensure the early landing of FSD in China, which will also bring new revenue to it. We will continue to pay attention to this.

(Reporter Liu Lixin   Correspondent Niu Lingyun   Wang Lili)"In the past, the smoke and noisy noise of barbecue stalls on both sides of the road made it difficult for people to sleep. Now the barbecue stalls have entered the store and changed to electric barbecue, and finally they can sleep well at night." A few days ago, Mao Qiumei, who lives in tanghe county Oilfield Base, said with deep feelings.

Tanghe county Oilfield Base is a famous "barbecue street" in the local area. Many barbecue stalls have caused people’s disturbance, which makes the residents nearby miserable. In March this year, after receiving the feedback from the masses, the tanghe county Procuratorate immediately sent personnel to intervene in the investigation. After investigation, it was found that the restaurant in this street moved the barbecue stove out of the store for barbecue every night, and the stove did not take any measures to purify the oil smoke, and the smoke was directly discharged into the air.

In order to effectively solve the problem of open-air barbecue pollution, the hospital issued a pre-litigation procuratorial suggestion to the county urban management (law enforcement) bureau to urge it to perform its duties according to law. After receiving the procuratorial suggestions, the county urban management (law enforcement) bureau immediately investigated and standardized the management of open-air barbecues in fixed stores according to law, cleaned up and banned more than 60 illegal stalls for open-air barbecues, urged 507 catering units in urban areas to install fume purification facilities, and changed more than 210 barbecue stalls from carbon to gas and electricity.

Since the beginning of this year, according to the clues of public interest litigation with serious air pollution, tanghe county Procuratorate has focused on the problems based on its functions, found out the reasons and made classified policies, which has obviously improved the environmental quality of the county.

The hospital set up a task force to issue procuratorial suggestions to 4 townships and 5 related units for more than 30 outstanding common problems, and banned 47 "scattered and polluted" enterprises; In view of the large amount of coal used by coal-related production enterprises and the substandard emissions, the disorderly development of "scattered pollution" enterprises and the direct discharge of catering fumes, a research report will be formed in time and submitted to the county party Committee, county people’s congress and county government, and the county ecological environment bureau, urban management bureau and other departments will be urged to perform their duties according to law through procuratorial suggestions to ensure the overall promotion of air pollution control work.

In addition, the hospital has also established a working mechanism for linking administrative law enforcement and criminal justice with joint meetings, information sharing, clue transfer, and consultation and supervision of major cases, and strengthened contact and cooperation with county natural resources bureau, ecological environment bureau and other units to dig deep into the clues of filing supervision. Up to now, the institute has issued 15 pieces of procuratorial suggestions to 12 functional departments including the county ecological environment bureau, urged administrative organs to dismantle 3 commercial coal-fired boilers, investigated and dealt with 30 illegal sales of fireworks and firecrackers, stopped production and rectified 2 large household coal users, and controlled dust on 30 construction sites.

(Original title: Roadside barbecues that have caused headaches for residents have disappeared   Tanghe River, Henan Province: Focusing on Air Pollution Prevention and Improving County Environmental Quality)

　　A few days ago, the newspaper "Don’t let students play" soft ball "aroused the concern of the society about students’ physical health. Yesterday, after interviewing some schools, the reporter found that many PE teachers were afraid to take part in sports for fear of accidental injuries to students. Traditional sports such as "jumping goats" and single parallel bars are quietly withdrawing from primary and secondary schools in physical education class.

　　Afraid of students being injured, they dare not go to the project.

　　A physical education teacher in the city told the reporter that his school has not participated in the jumping box project for many years. On the surface, it is more troublesome to prepare before class, and the mat is also a box, but the more important reason is that students are afraid of injury. "Especially primary school students can’t stand it, and they can fall out with a wrong eye."

　　The teacher’s "jumping box" is commonly known as "jumping goat", and most people over 30 years old have practiced it on the physical education class in their student days. This project is mainly to train students’ ability to overcome obstacles, and also to test students’ psychological quality. Under normal circumstances, senior primary school students should learn "goat prancing with split legs", junior high school students and senior high school girls should learn "horizontal box prancing with split legs" and "horizontal box prancing with bent legs", while senior high school boys should learn "vertical box prancing with split legs" and "vertical box prancing with bent legs". However, up to now, few schools offer this program.

　　The events with the same fate as "Bouncing Box" include the single parallel bars. A physical education teacher with more than 20 years’ teaching experience said that he had never started this project since he entered the profession. At first, the school didn’t have the venue conditions, but later he dared not take it, for fear that students would be injured. "Today’s children can’t really talk. They didn’t last for a few seconds, either their arms were twisted or their shoulders were twisted, and wrist fracture’s children couldn’t attend class … …” The teacher repeatedly expressed his feelings.

　　Change the content to avoid disputes.

　　Physical education teachers are afraid to take part in the project, fearing the disputes that may be caused by students’ exercise injuries.

　　A physical education teacher told the reporter about his experience. Once, he gave a class to a fifth-grade student. A student fell down while running 50 meters. At that time, he asked if the child was injured. The child said that he was fine, but his arm was red and swollen after returning to work. The class teacher called the parents. Later, parents were adamant. First, they complained that the teacher didn’t send their children to the hospital at the first time. Later, they said that their children were made for the air force, and injuries would affect their future service as soldiers. The physical education teacher had no choice but to make amends at home every three days until his parents cooled down.

　　It is understood that schools encounter such disputes in different ways. Some schools will pay children’s medical expenses, but some schools will let PE teachers bear the consequences themselves, which will bring pressure to PE teachers invisibly.

　　In order to avoid disputes, many PE teachers have to reduce their own risks without violating the syllabus. For example, there are gymnastics teaching contents in the syllabus, but the teachers no longer take the single and parallel bars, but only use relatively simple movements such as forward roll, back roll, horizontal fork and vertical fork instead. Even the most common winter long-distance running events, many schools have to issue a "parents’ notice" before the start of the race, so that parents can confirm whether their children can participate in this sport, so as to avoid being "accounted for" after the accident.

　　New monitoring and evaluation standards are brewing.

　　I am afraid that my child will be injured and dare not go to the project. Is this for the sake of my child or for the sake of my child?

　　In this regard, Li Xiangru, a professor at Capital Institute of Physical Education, believes that the decline of primary and secondary school students’ physical fitness and ability to adapt to society is related to the lack of challenging events in physical education class. We should not regard physical education class as a simple physical education class, but link physical education class with the all-round development of teenagers.

　　In his view, the physical education curriculum in primary and secondary schools should be reformed around "what kind of teenagers should be trained". In this process, it is necessary for young people to enhance their ability to resist blows, setbacks and injuries in physical exercise. From a certain point of view, failing to get on the "dangerous project" tests the responsibility of primary and secondary school principals and physical education teachers.

　　As for the fear of students’ injuries, he feels that among all disciplines, physical education class is a high-risk course, and minor injuries are inevitable in sports. As long as physical education teachers are not negligent, they should not be held accountable to physical education teachers. "Students’ injuries should be viewed objectively, not necessarily the problems of schools and teachers."

　　In addition, the reporter learned from relevant departments that the Municipal Education Commission, the Municipal Sports Bureau and the Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention are preparing the "Evaluation Standard for physical education class Exercise Load of Primary and Secondary School Students in Beijing", with a view to monitoring and evaluating the quality of physical education class in primary and secondary schools by issuing local standards. If it goes well, the standard is expected to be officially introduced next year.

　　CCTV News:Not long ago, the Guangdong Higher People’s Court, in the second instance, changed the result of a drug case. The defendant was commuted from innocence to life imprisonment. There is nothing special about this drug case itself, but its trial process is extremely tortuous and difficult. The case has gone through seven sessions in the past four years. From innocence to life, what kind of tortuous experience is behind the verdict?

　　Why did the thought change from "zero confession" to writing a confession?

　　In July 2019, a letter sent from Panyu District Detention Center in Guangzhou was placed on the desk of He Xiongwei, the prosecutor of Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate. The letter was sent by Liu Youdi, a criminal in a drug trafficking case. She wrote in the letter, "Please meet He Xiongwei. Now I am willing to plead guilty, admit my mistake and truthfully explain the case." Just a month ago, Liu Youdi was sentenced to life imprisonment by the Guangdong Higher People’s Court for drug trafficking. In court, she never pleaded guilty. So what makes her mind change so dramatically now? What kind of waves are behind this drug case?

　　On December 21, 2015, the Public Security Bureau of Panyu District, Guangzhou received a report that someone was dealing in drugs near a building in Panyu District. After grasping the clues, the police immediately went to arrest. The location of the arrest was in an alley. After groping, the police quickly found the target vehicle. After exploring the surrounding terrain, they made a detailed plan and launched the arrest operation.

　　Police of Panyu Branch of Guangzhou Public Security Bureau:As soon as I walked past, I knocked on the woman’s window. She opened the window. When I opened the window, I saw that she seemed to have left the steering wheel with her hands, and she was still playing with her mobile phone. I felt that it was time. I immediately put my hands in and controlled her hands.

　　At that time, the woman in the car did not resist too much, and the arresting personnel quickly controlled her, and other police officers immediately gathered around and searched the vehicle. Soon, they found a bag on the mat in the passenger seat.

　　Police of Panyu Branch of Guangzhou Public Security Bureau:Before I opened it, she said that the bag was not mine, and she knew that it must be illegal, so she said that it was not mine.

　　The woman who found drugs in the car argued that she was framed.

　　After testing, the items contained in the plastic bag extracted by the police from the woman’s car that day were confirmed to be ice, weighing 1000.06 grams. As a result, Panyu police detained the female object Liu Youdi, but in the subsequent trial, she always denied that the bag of ice was her own. Liu Youdi said that she is a Wechat business who is engaged in bird’s nest business. On that day, she took some bird’s nest for her friend Zhou to help sell, and this bag was put in the car when Zhou left. Liu Youdi said that there was an economic dispute between her and Zhou, so she suspected that this bag of drugs was used by Zhou to frame herself.

　　In the subsequent investigation, the police also found that just the day before Liu Youdi was arrested, she had been to Shanwei, Guangdong Province, and her own explanation was to go to Shanwei to find someone to buy bird’s nest. Liu Youdi not only refused to admit this series of evidence pointing to her suspected crime, but also had his own set of rhetoric, which also made the prosecutor of Panyu District Procuratorate doubt whether he could approve the arrest.

　　Zheng Shaochun, Procurator of Panyu District People’s Procuratorate, Guangzhou:Then at that time, the preliminary judgment was that there was no direct and objective evidence to rule out her excuses, including my own manager’s opinion, and they all tended to say that the case was in doubt and not arrested.

　　Get the key words of new evidence to attract the attention of the prosecution

　　Seven days is the time limit for the procuratorate to review the arrest. Just as the prosecutor was preparing to make an opinion not to approve the arrest, the public security organ provided new evidence in time, a WeChat record of communication related to Liu Youdi. Among these massive electronic evidence, some key words attracted the attention of the prosecutor.

　　Zheng Shaochun, Procurator of Panyu District People’s Procuratorate, Guangzhou:He said that if he was afraid of being arrested by the police or the police, he mentioned some very sensitive words. Also said that you brought me several sets, and mentioned some similar transactions. At that time, after listening to this recording, we strengthened our conviction and should be able to rule out her excuse.

　　The case encountered twists and turns when it entered the stage of review and prosecution.

　　According to the preliminary investigation and evidence collection, Panyu District People’s Procuratorate approved the arrest of Liu Youdi according to law, and then the case entered the stage of review and prosecution. The prosecutor found that from the chat record, Liu Youdi had a very close relationship with Zhou who appeared in her car on the day of the incident. It should be said that Zhou was also a very key witness in the case. But in the existing evidence, there is no material of her testimony. Under the existing evidence, the procuratorate can only prosecute Liu Youdi for the crime of illegal possession of drugs.

　　Wang Chaoxia, Procurator of Panyu District People’s Procuratorate:In this case, through WeChat chat, it can be confirmed that this drug was taken by Liu Youdi from other places. At least there is illegal possession of drugs involved, which can be proved to be Liu Youdi’s. At that time, in the absence of drug buyers, we temporarily transferred the crime of illegal possession of drugs to Panyu District People’s Court for prosecution.

　　Obtain the testimony of key witnesses and prosecute for drug trafficking

　　In this way, after three court sessions, that is, one year after the crime, the public security organs heard new news. They found the key witness Zhou, and got her transcript materials. In her testimony, Liu Youdi was mentioned to have bought and sold drugs. As a result, the nature of the case changed. So Panyu District People’s Procuratorate changed the charges against Liu Youdi and brought a public prosecution to the court for drug trafficking.

　　Wang Chaoxia, Procurator of Panyu District People’s Procuratorate:After the change of prosecution, because the number of drug trafficking has reached more than life imprisonment and reached the standard of upward adjustment, the case was withdrawn after communicating with the court and was raised to the Guangzhou People’s Procuratorate for prosecution.

　　The prosecution changed the accusation and waited for the court to hear it.

　　After obtaining new evidence, the procuratorate changed from "illegal possession of drugs" to "drug trafficking" and filed a public prosecution with the court. However, the next court trial process was full of twists and turns. In the trial, the first problem is the "zero confession".

　　Chen Shufen, Procurator of Guangzhou Municipal People’s Procuratorate:We have studied all the evidence very carefully, and we have formed an inner conviction by synthesizing the evidence of the whole case. The evidence of the whole case should meet the prosecution standard of clear criminal facts and sufficient evidence.

　　The accusation is proved guilty through two aspects of evidence.

　　In August 2017, the Guangzhou Intermediate People’s Court held a hearing on this drug crime case. In court, the confrontation between the prosecution and the defense was very fierce. Since Liu Youdi did not plead guilty from beginning to end, it is necessary for the procuratorate to charge her with guilt. Work hard on the evidence.

　　Chen Shufen, Procurator of Guangzhou Municipal People’s Procuratorate:So to accuse a "zero confession" crime, we need to have a lot of objective evidence to support it, as well as the corresponding verbal evidence, that is, witness testimony. The objective evidence and verbal evidence can form a complete proof system, and in this case, we can identify the crime.

　　In the court trial, the prosecutor mainly confirmed each other through objective evidence and verbal evidence, proving that the case has reached the standard of clear facts and sufficient evidence, and can eliminate reasonable doubt, which is enough to confirm Liu Youdi’s conviction for drug trafficking.

　　Defender insists on innocent defense and questions witness testimony.

　　On the other hand, Liu Youdi’s defenders insisted on pleading not guilty. They believed that the public security organs did not collect evidence from the witness Zhou until one year after the crime, and many contents in the testimony were inconsistent with what the witness said in court. The defenders questioned the authenticity of this witness’s testimony. They thought that Zhou might lie and could not rule out the situation that she framed Liu Youdi.

　　The facts are unclear and the evidence is insufficient.

　　On February 2, 2018, the Guangzhou Intermediate People’s Court pronounced the case in the first instance. The court held that the evidence on which the defendant Liu Youdi constituted the crime of drug trafficking did not form a complete proof system, did not meet the legal proof standard of sufficient evidence, and did not meet the conviction requirements of clear basic facts and conclusive basic evidence, and could not rule out reasonable doubt. According to relevant laws, the defendant Liu Youdi was acquitted.

　　The prosecution filed a protest to supplement the corresponding evidence.

　　After the verdict of the first instance came out, the prosecutors also began to reflect. They reorganized the evidence materials of this case and thought that although the witness testimony in court was repeated, the evidence of the case did not change fundamentally. As long as the relevant evidence was reinforced, the case could still reach the conviction standard of clear criminal facts and sufficient evidence, so the Guangzhou People’s Procuratorate decided to lodge a protest against this case.

　　Chen Shufen, Procurator of Guangzhou Municipal People’s Procuratorate:For this case, we feel that we should be convicted and then acquitted. We also feel that the evidence is sufficient, and our prosecution is supported by evidence and has a legal basis. In this case, we feel it is necessary to push this lawsuit forward. It is by protesting this litigation procedure that this second trial procedure is pulled.

　　After the protest opinions were reported step by step, they were supported by the Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate and the Supreme People’s Procuratorate. At the same time, the Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate also put forward some suggestions to strengthen the relevant evidence.

　　How does the prosecution consolidate the evidence when entering the second trial stage?

　　The case entered the second trial stage, and it was handed over to He Xiongwei, deputy director of the First Procuratorate of Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate. However, in his view, this case still needs to be strengthened in some evidence.

　　After taking over the case, the prosecutor He Xiongwei quickly entered the marking work. At the same time, he also browsed the relevant reports about the case online, and some netizens’ doubts about the case coincided with his thoughts.

　　He Xiongwei, Deputy Director of the First Procuratorial Department of Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate:I also saw some comments at that time. Many netizens said that the suspected crime never ensured that the innocent people would not be investigated by law. Whose one kilogram of drugs was it? There must be a drug crime in it. You let this man go, then who should be responsible for this kilo of drugs?

　　Who should be responsible for this kilogram of drugs? It is also the fact that the prosecutor He Xiongwei wants to find out. Liu Youdi said that he went to Shanwei to buy bird’s nest the day before the incident. After consulting all the files, he questioned Liu Youdi’s remarks.

　　He Xiongwei, Deputy Director of the First Procuratorial Department of Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate:Bird’s nest is counted by one lamp. She said how many, and then there were a lot of drug code words. For example, she mentioned that I’m not afraid of being detected by the police, and I don’t take drugs.

　　These inferences of the prosecutor need to be proved by more solid evidence. If there is no stronger evidence, it is still very difficult to change the judgment of the case.

　　Prosecutors lead the way to find drugs to go home.

　　After reviewing the files repeatedly, He Xiongwei found a person, a key breakthrough. He analyzed that if Liu Youdi went to Shanwei to buy drugs, then the man she contacted in Shanwei at that time, who was called "Lao Chen", was probably her family. Coincidentally, in another drug crime case handled by He Xiongwei, the name "Lao Chen" also appeared.

　　He Xiongwei, Deputy Director of the First Procuratorial Department of Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate:It happened that I was lucky enough to handle another case, which was a drug trafficking gang. In the process of reviewing the case file, I found that all four people in this case identified a person named "Lao Chen". At that time, I thought about the case of Liu Youdi, whose last family was also called "Lao Chen".

　　After in-depth investigation, He Xiongwei found that the "Lao Chen" in these two unrelated cases were very similar. They both lived in Shanwei, and many characteristics were consistent. More and more evidence proved that the two "Lao Chen" were the same person. So, He Xiongwei immediately informed the public security organs to investigate this "old Chen" in depth, and at the same time, he also asked the court to take Liu Youdi, who had been released on bail pending trial, into custody.

　　He Xiongwei, Deputy Director of the First Procuratorial Department of Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate:We also issued an official letter suggesting that the provincial court arrest her. The provincial court made a decision to arrest after the collegial panel’s deliberation and approval.

　　“preceding player (in card or mahjong playing)"Arrested to grasp the core evidence of the case.

　　Soon, with the cooperation of public security departments at all levels, the criminal suspect Chen Mou was arrested in Shanwei. After investigation, the criminal evidence of drug trading between Chen Mou and Liu Youdi also surfaced. In this way, the key evidence of this case was finally found. In the second trial, this evidence also became the core evidence against Liu Youdi for drug trafficking. In the trial of the second instance of Guangdong Higher People’s Court, the prosecutor presented several sets of evidence to prove that Liu Youdi had the fact of selling drugs, but in the face of these evidences, Liu Youdi once again argued that he was innocent for various reasons.

　　On June 14, 2019, the Guangdong Higher People’s Court pronounced the case in the second instance. The court held that, in view of the fact that Liu Youdi had been found guilty of drug trafficking in the second instance, the Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate’s protest against Liu Youdi’s request for a revised sentence for drug trafficking was found to be sufficient and adopted. Therefore, the court revoked the acquittal of the first instance and considered that Liu Youdi constituted a drug trafficking crime.

　　The trial of the case ended, but the prosecutor’s heart was still unresolved.

　　This case was changed from innocence to life imprisonment, which made all the judicial personnel who worked hard feel very relieved, but prosecutor He Xiongwei still had a knot in his heart, that is, Liu Youdi never admitted his guilt.

　　Before the trial of the second instance, He Xiongwei went to Panyu several times to interrogate Liu Youdi. Although she never pleaded guilty in court, on July 9, 2019, less than one month after the verdict of the second instance was pronounced, she wrote such a letter in Panyu District Detention Center, saying that she wanted to see the prosecutor He Xiongwei and expressed her willingness to admit her crimes. Liu Youdi said that she had a boyfriend who was a wealthy businessman. Since she had no source of income, her boyfriend gave her some money to do some business. But she spent the money elsewhere.

　　Criminal Liu Youdi:Gave me money, and then I didn’t do business, so I renovated the house without telling him. After decorating the house, I bought all kinds of materials, leaving hundreds of thousands like this.

　　The rest of the money, in Liu Youdi’s view, can’t do any big business. She was too embarrassed to talk to her boyfriend again, so she turned to her friend for help, so the other party found her a so-called crooked way to make money.

　　Criminal Liu Youdi:She told me to introduce you to a way to make money quickly. I asked her what it was, and she said selling drugs.

　　I was lucky enough not to plead guilty, but now I regret it.

　　Liu Youdi, who was not aware of the law, was persuaded by her friends and contacted her last family, Chen Mou. She drove to Shanwei the day before the murder, bought methamphetamine from Chen Mou and returned to Guangzhou overnight, and then prepared to help sell it through her friends, but she was not expected to be arrested by the police soon. In court, Liu Youdi insisted on not pleading guilty with luck, but now, facing the prosecutor, she regrets her original choice very much.

　　Criminal Liu Youdi:I really regret not pleading guilty at that time. At that time, I still stood very hard. I really regret that at that time, including the presiding judge, including giving me this opportunity to speak my mind, just tell me that you can plead guilty and get this lighter punishment.

　　With Liu Youdi’s own confession of the crime, this drug case, which has gone through nearly four years and seven sessions, has finally come to an end, and the protest of this case is precisely that the procuratorial organ resolutely performs its legal supervision function and strives to make the people feel fair and just in every judicial case.

　　Shen Bingyou, Director of the Second Procuratorial Department of Guangdong Provincial People’s Procuratorate:If there is a mistake, it must be corrected. This mistake includes not only that those who should not be convicted are convicted, but also that those who should be convicted are not convicted. This mistake must be corrected is two-way, not simply one-sided understanding. Because fighting crime and protecting human rights are the dual responsibilities of procuratorial organs, and both are indispensable.

　　Source: General Administration of Customs Cartography: Cai Huawei

　　According to customs statistics, in the first quarter, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. China’s foreign trade started smoothly, showing a good trend month by month, and the growth rate of import and export increased month by month. Lv Daliang, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said at the press conference of the State Council Office on April 13th that despite the severe and complicated external situation, China’s foreign trade still showed strong resilience. Comprehensive judgment shows that the goal of promoting stability and improving quality of foreign trade this year is supported.

　　The vitality of foreign trade entities has been further enhanced.

　　There were 457,000 foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance, up 5.9% year-on-year.

　　In January, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, imports and exports fell by 7%. From negative to positive in February, it increased by 8% in that month, and the year-on-year growth rate increased to 15.5% in March, showing a positive trend month by month. The overall growth in the first quarter was 4.8%, 2.6 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year.

　　The number of foreign trade business entities has increased steadily, showing new vitality. In the first quarter, there were 457,000 foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance in China, up 5.9% year-on-year. Among them, there were 384,000 private enterprises, an increase of 7.5%, and the import and export volume was 5.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.4%, accounting for 52.4% of China’s total import and export value. In the same period, the import and export of foreign-invested enterprises was 3.04 trillion yuan, and the import and export of state-owned enterprises was 1.65 trillion yuan, accounting for 30.7% and 16.7% of the total import and export value respectively.

　　"Private enterprises have been the main force in China’s foreign trade development for four consecutive years." Lu Daliang introduced that in 2022, the proportion of private enterprises in China’s total import and export value reached 50.9%, and the annual proportion exceeded half for the first time. In the first quarter of this year, the foreign trade of private enterprises continued to maintain a rapid growth trend, and its proportion further increased.

　　Customs data show that in the first quarter, China’s general trade import and export was 6.46 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year, accounting for 65.3% of the total import and export value, up 1.9 percentage points from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 3.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.7%; Imports reached 2.78 trillion yuan, up 2.2%.

　　Exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products have both increased. In the first quarter, the export of mechanical and electrical products in China was 3.27 trillion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year, accounting for 57.9% of the total export value; Among them, the exports of automobiles, household appliances and batteries were 147.47 billion yuan, 141.24 billion yuan and 116.34 billion yuan, up by 96.6%, 3.2% and 84.8% respectively. In the same period, the export of labor-intensive products was 947.46 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%.

　　The foreign trade structure was further optimized.

　　The total export of "new three samples" was 264.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.9%.

　　In the first quarter, China’s total exports of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells ("new three kinds") reached 264.69 billion yuan, up 66.9% year-on-year, accounting for 1.7 percentage points of China’s exports, reaching 4.7%.

　　In recent years, the global attention to new energy and green low-carbon fields has gradually increased, and the strong demand in the international market has also driven the export growth of green low-carbon products in China. Last year, the "new three samples" boosted the overall growth of China’s exports by 1.7 percentage points. This year, the pulling effect has further increased, and the overall growth of exports in the first quarter was 2 percentage points. In the first quarter, China’s "new three samples" exported to more than 200 countries and regions around the world, among which exports to the European Union, the United States, ASEAN, South Korea and the United Kingdom increased by 88.7%, 88.1%, 103.5%, 121.7% and 118.2% respectively.

　　In the first quarter, China’s central and western regions achieved import and export of 1.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, and the scale reached a record high in the same period. Driven by the national regional coordinated development strategy, the central and western regions have sustained economic development, the proportion of foreign trade imports and exports has continued to increase, and the regional structure of China’s foreign trade has been further optimized.

　　"The central and western regions give play to their location advantages, promote cross-border transportation facilitation, and continuously improve channel operation and logistics efficiency." Lu Daliang said that in the first quarter, the import and export of the new land and sea passage in the west was 969.52 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1%. China-Laos Railway has played an increasingly significant role in China-ASEAN trade since its opening more than a year ago. In the first quarter of this year, it supervised and released 880,000 tons of import and export goods, an increase of 219%.

　　The scale of border trade through border crossings has steadily increased. In the first quarter, the total import and export of border trade and small-scale border trade was 89.7 billion yuan, a record high in the same period, up 111% year-on-year, and the proportion of foreign trade in central and western China increased by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year to 4.9%.

　　Foreign trade market expansion is more balanced.

　　Imports and exports to countries along the Belt and Road increased by 16.8%

　　In the first quarter, most of China’s top ten export markets maintained positive growth. Among them, exports to ASEAN, Japan and the European Union increased by 28%, 5.3% and 0.3% respectively, and the export growth rate to South Korea, India and Mexico exceeded double digits. The foreign trade regional market is further developed and more balanced.

　　"This year is ‘ Belt and Road ’ Tenth anniversary of the initiative. In the past ten years, China has been interested in ‘ Belt and Road ’ The proportion of imports and exports of countries along the route in China’s overall foreign trade has increased significantly from 25% in 2013 to 32.9% in 2022. " Lv Daliang said that in the first quarter, China’s import and export to countries along the Belt and Road increased by 16.8%, 12 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of China’s foreign trade in the same period; It accounted for 34.6% of the total import and export value, up 3.5 percentage points. Among them, the import and export to Southeast Asia, West Asia, North Africa, Central Asia and South Asia along the route increased by 16.1%, 12.5%, 32.2% and 4.1% respectively. In the first quarter, China’s import and export to countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 24.6% and 61.8% respectively by railway and road transportation.

　　In the first quarter, China’s imports and exports to the other 14 member countries of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) totaled 3.08 trillion yuan, up 7.3% year-on-year, accounting for 31.2% of China’s total foreign trade in the same period, and the proportion increased by 0.8 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Lv Daliang analyzed that in the first quarter, China’s imports and exports to other RCEP member countries increased by more than 10% to seven, among which imports and exports to Singapore, Laos and Myanmar all increased by more than 20%, reaching 45.8%, 37.8% and 29% respectively.

　　Lv Daliang said that at present, the global economic instability, uncertainty and unpredictable risks are increasing, and China’s foreign trade development will face many difficulties and challenges. However, we must also see that China’s economy is strong in resilience, great in potential and full of vitality, and its long-term positive fundamentals remain unchanged. "I believe that with the continuous overall improvement of China’s economic operation, the positive momentum of foreign trade is expected to continue further." He said that the customs will further optimize and upgrade the relevant policies and measures according to the demands of enterprises this year, and will continue to release the dividends of policies and measures to better help foreign trade to promote stability and improve quality.