What will be the next step of the government’s determination to stabilize housing prices？
CCTV News:As we all know, the annual "Golden September and Silver 10" has been the traditional sales season of the property market. However, since September 22nd this year, several provincial capital cities such as Xi ‘an, Nanchang, Nanning, Changsha, Guiyang, Shijiazhuang, Wuhan and Chongqing have intensively introduced new policies on property market regulation in two days, and six of them have implemented sales restrictions. Sales restriction has also become the biggest feature of this round of regulation, which is different from the previous regulation cycle.
Among them, Chongqing City and Nanchang City stipulate that newly-built commercial houses purchased in restricted sales areas can only be transferred after obtaining the title certificate of immovable property for two years; The restricted sales period in Guiyang is three years after signing the house purchase contract; Nanning is a restricted sales upgrade: legal entities purchase two or more houses for two years. Previously, Nanning had stipulated that buyers could not transfer the third or more houses until two years later; The newly purchased housing in Changsha can only be transferred after three years, and the second suite can only be purchased after the first housing is purchased for three years.
Zhu Daolin, director of the Department of Land Resources Management of China Agricultural University, said, judging from the recent intensive introduction of these cities, firstly, the price increase in these cities was relatively stable in the early stage, but their prices began to rise to a certain extent this year. In addition, the relative supply and demand relationship or population size of these cities is relatively large, so the demand will be relatively strong.
Experts said that the restriction of sales has also become the biggest feature of this round of regulation, which is different from the previous regulation cycle. From the effect point of view, it belongs to a short-term mechanism, with the aim of curbing speculative demand in the market. The essence of restricted sales is the deleveraging policy of the property market, which requires buyers to allocate assets for their own use. Otherwise, according to the trading cycle of 3-5 years, it is unlikely to attract high-leverage and high-cost funds. This restriction on sales has obviously hit the demand for speculation and investment, which reduces the investment attribute of real estate and affects the possibility of short-term profit. For leveraged investors, the risk is getting bigger and bigger.
Liu Weimin, a researcher at the the State Council Development Research Center, said that this means that we should carry out this regulation from the perspective of ensuring the basic balance between supply and demand. Then, on the other hand, we actually need to control the speed of entering the market reasonably, so that we can release this demand for housing smoothly.
The investment cycle is prolonged or the house price is consolidated at a high level.
For many cities to introduce purchase restriction policies, experts said that the impact on the property market should be viewed from two levels, one is the impact on itself, and the other is the signal sent by policy upgrading to the property market.
With the introduction of the new property market policy, the investment cycle of housing purchase in these cities will inevitably be extended, the liquidity will be limited, the demand for housing, especially the demand for investment housing, will be suppressed, the transaction volume will also decline, and house prices will be consolidated at a high level or even fall. Take Xiamen, the first city in China to implement the sales restriction policy, for example. In the month when Xiamen introduced the sales restriction policy, its new commercial housing rose by 1.9% month on month, and the price of second-hand housing rose by 4.9%. The month after the introduction of the sales restriction policy, the price increase of all kinds of houses fell rapidly, especially the price of second-hand houses fell month-on-month. In the following months, the price increase of all kinds of houses in Xiamen was within 0.5%, and the second-hand houses kept a slight decline for five consecutive months.
Liu Weimin, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said that it will play a good role in the smooth operation of local real estate, especially for those real rigid demands.
Liu Weimin also said that the upgrading of property market regulation policies in many places will send a clear signal to the market, so that all parties in the market can realize the government’s determination to regulate the property market and stabilize housing prices. This will have a certain deterrent effect on property buyers in other cities, especially investment property buyers, and the wait-and-see ratio of potential property buyers in cities will also increase.
Expert advice: we should speed up the construction of a long-term mechanism in the real estate market.
The superposition of control policies such as purchase restriction, price restriction, loan restriction and sales restriction has played a significant role in curbing the rise of real estate prices for a period of time. In this regard, Deng Yusong, deputy director of the Market Economy Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, said in an interview with CCTV that the next step is more important for the country to speed up the construction of a long-term mechanism for the real estate market.
At present, local governments have begun to comprehensively use land, finance, housing security and other policy means to curb investment and strengthen the residential properties of housing, such as increasing land supply in cities with prominent housing supply and demand expectations, strengthening differentiated housing credit policies, implementing different credit policies for different buyers, improving the housing security system, and strengthening the construction of shared property housing.
Deng Yusong, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said that how to better meet the normal living needs of residents, constantly improve living conditions and guard against real estate risks should be a key point in the adjustment of our entire real estate market policy in the future, that is, how to establish the basic system and long-term mechanism of the real estate market.
In addition, the rental and purchase housing system will be another important aspect of the long-term mechanism of the real estate market. The reform of the housing rental market has advanced rapidly, which has forced the commercial housing market to improve itself. According to statistics, in the next five years, only four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will provide more than 2.5 million rental houses. In the long run, the supply structure of real estate will be optimized by providing rental housing, and the demand for self-occupation and investment will be guided to everyone, so as to promote the development of the real estate market in a more rational direction.
Deng Yusong, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economy of the State Council Development Research Center, said, I think it is still necessary to distinguish between investment demand and normal improvement demand, and guide investment demand reasonably so that they can play an active role in providing housing rental and realizing housing market rental, instead of speculating on houses.