Biodiesel heavy truck： a sharp tool for emission reduction in the next decade. Degradable plastics welcome the golden age.

Qiu Xiaofeng

Managing Director of CICC and Chief Analyst of Oil, Gas and Chemical Industry

Won the top two in the new wealth petrochemical industry for 12 consecutive years.

Using biological manufacturing technology instead of chemical processing will be an important way to reduce carbon emissions. How much carbon emissions can bio-manufacturing technology reduce? Which tracks are more advantageous among bio-based chemicals? What characteristics will enterprises stand out? Qiu Xiaofeng, managing director of CICC and chief analyst of oil, gas and chemical industry, explains it in detail for you.

The carbon emissions of bio-based products can be reduced by 60% to 70%, and the two major tracks have more advantages.

Qiu Xiaofeng said that products made from starch, sugar and other plants are bio-based products, and their carbon emissions can be reduced by 60% to 70% compared with petroleum-based products.

Among the many tracks of bio-based products, two tracks have more advantages: biodiesel and bio-aviation kerosene, and bio-based plastics.

Biodiesel is the best emission reduction scheme for commercial heavy trucks in the next decade, and hydrogen energy will be the final scheme.

Among bio-based products, biodiesel is the most important fuel in production and demand. In Qiu Xiaofeng’s view, at present, biodiesel technology has a high maturity and will be the best solution to reduce carbon emissions in public commercial vehicles such as heavy trucks in the next decade. Qiu Xiaofeng believes that in the longer term, with the maturity of water electrolysis hydrogen technology and the decline of photovoltaic power generation cost, the final solution will be hydrogen energy.

The market size of bio-based chemicals may reach 3 trillion yuan.

For the second category of bio-based products — — For bio-based chemicals, some analysts believe that almost all the chemicals known at present have corresponding bio-manufacturing routes, and large-scale amplification is expected. Qiu Xiaofeng said that bio-based chemicals have a wide range of applications, such as plastic bags, disposable lunch boxes, clothes, high-temperature resistant materials, etc. It is estimated that the overall market size of bio-based chemicals may reach 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan by 2040.

Degradable plastics are expected to emerge in the "golden age"

Qiu Xiaofeng believes that in 2021, the degradable plastics industry will usher in a "golden age" in which hundreds of people compete, and PBAT and PLA polylactic acid will stand out. Due to the different technical points, the winning enterprises in their respective fields have the following characteristics:

PBAT: Controlling raw materials on a large scale and bringing them to market at a low price.

PLA polylactic acid: strong technical ability